Oscar tips

who will win

I recently posted my Posties (see where the name came from?), which are my two cents on the best of film in 2025. Someone invariably asks me, though, “Who will win at the Oscars this Sunday?” Mostly, they want to know for petty workplace gambling. But, whyever you may want to know the best bets come Sunday night, here’s what I can tell you.

Best Picture: The past week, pundits have taken to proclaiming that Sinners has a chance here, but they do something similar every year. They have been following this all year long (as have I, but not as closely), and they get bored of the same predicted winners and long for fresh picks. If any movie has a chance at beating One Battle After Another, then, sure, Sinners is that film. I don’t think we’ll be seeing that, however. It would be great if Hamnet jumped into a vote split between those other two, but I think it’s safely in third.

Best Director: Again, recent buzz wants Ryan Coogler to win for Sinners. That is more likely than the film winning the big one, but it’s still not likely. Paul Thomas Anderson has been waiting for his Oscar for twenty-five years, and the Academy will be excited to finally give it to him for One Battle After Another.

Best Actress: There is a possibility of an upset here, despite Jessie Buckley basically being on lock for Hamnet. Rose Byrne could surprise us all. Buckley has what I call an ampass (a pun on AMPAS, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences): she’s dogeared for a gold guy. If voters decide that this is Byrne’s one chance but that Buckley will get up there later anyway, they may vote for Rose. But, then, some ampasses run on and on until you get to an Annette Bening or Glenn Close situation, so they may want to sew it up now.

Best Actor: Until this past week, Marty Supreme’s Timothée Chalamet was the clear victor here. However, he hasn’t done as well as expected with the precursors (especially BAFTA and SAG-AFTRA), so conventional wisdom has moved down the list to Michael B. Jordan for playing the Smokestack Twins in Sinners. That would be a much preferable outcome, although Ethan Hawke really deserves to win. But this category has become a bit unstable with Chalamet’s destiny in question, so Wagner Moura could come through, or even Leonardo DiCaprio (for my favorite of his performances so far).

Best Supporting Actress: This is where the sparks will fly. It’s also traditionally awarded at the top of the telecast, which will mean the suspense won’t last long. Amy Madigan (Weapons) has the narrative: after being nominated forty years ago, she has labored quietly until this surprise hit role. We’re living in the age of the new Academy, though—larger, younger, more diverse—and I don’t think they’re going to hand the white-lady horror villain a statuette so easily. Not when Teyana Taylor and Wunmi Mosaku are hot on her heels. Both gave excellent performances, and I would love to see either win, but if pressed, I might lean a little more to Taylor, who will be winning the red carpet for sure (with some sort of headpiece).

Best Supporting Actor: Here, yet again, popular odds have changed very recently to suggest a third Oscar for Sean Penn (whose terrifying villain in One Battle After Another will likely become iconic). Still, lots of people have worked with Stellan Skarsgård over his long career, and he’s actually likable, unlike Penn. He’s now a veteran and the head of a little acting dynasty, so I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he wins his first Oscar for a film from his native Scandinavia (Sentimental Value). Also, voters may not want to go all in on One Battle After Another, and this would be a great place to show love to the beloved Norwegian film.

Best Adapted Screenplay: One Battle After Another with a small side of Hamnet.

Best Original Screenplay: Sinners with a little sprinkle of Sentimental Value.

Best Casting: This is the first time this award has been given, so no one quite knows how it will go. Most are betting on this becoming a sort of Best Ensemble award, and are going with Sinners.

Best Cinematography: This is a three-dog race. Train Dreams has many disciples, and One Battle After Another has the highest odds of winning. However, I would look for Sinners to vanquish both, making Autumn Durald Arkapaw both the first Black person and the first woman to win this award.

Best Costume Design: They didn’t consult me, so Frankenstein will be winning, despite Mia Goth’s ugly hair feathers.

Best Film Editing: One Battle After Another is leading here with its pulse-pounding suspense, but if anyone can pull an upset, it’s F1.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Frankenstein again, although the movie’s major flaw is right here, in the very unhorrifying makeup that took eleven hours to apply to Jacob Elordi each day.

Best Production Design: Since I have it penciled in for Costumes and Makeup, it only makes sense that Frankenstein will win here, too…but a Sinners upset is slightly possible.

Best Score: There were a number of very fine scores this year, but it’s the film about the mystic communal power of music itself (Sinners) that will win.

Best Song: Yes, “I Lied To You” has the moment of the year in that Sinners one-shot, but how can “Golden” not win it for KPop Demon Hunters?

Best Sound: While I hear (ha—unintentional pun!) that Sirât deserves this one, it will more likely be swept up by Sinners’s music or F1’s car racing. Most likely, it will go to the latter.

Best Visual Effects: A big yawn, everyone, for Avatar: Fire and Ash…

Best Animated Feature: KPop Demon Hunters, 100%.

Best Documentary: Look for The Perfect Neighbor to win over Mr. Nobody Against Putin…or the other way around!

Best International Film: There are only two correct choices here. The Secret Agent has a surprisingly big fan base, but I’m betting on Sentimental Value to go the distance.

Best Animated Short: I’ll be honest: no one can predict the shorts. Popular opinion says Butterfly, with The Girl Who Cried Pearls on the come-up. But you win or lose the office Oscar pool by sheer guessing on the three shorts categories.

Best Documentary Short: Let’s say it’s All the Empty Rooms. Or go with Armed Only with a Camera.

Live Action Short: This may be the closest race of the night, if you go just by the odds. It’s a close race between A Friend of Dorothy and Two People Exchanging Saliva…but could literally any other title be announced?